Final Four Preview II

Duke vs Michigan State:

Duke Strengths: Duke does a lot of things well on the court, but scoring may be what they do best.  They are third in the nation in points per game pouring in 79.5 a night, and let's not forget that these guys can shoot.  They are third in the nation in shooting percentage (50.2%), twenty-first in 3 point percentage (39%), and fourth in 2 point percentage (56%).  Their three point attack is headlined by Quinn Cook, the senior hits just under three triples a game at a 40% clip, and if left open he WILL make you pay.  The Joneses, Matt and Tyus, both can hit the deep ball too.  Matt hit 4-7 threes against Gonzaga last weekend on his way to 16 points, Tyus shoots 37% from behind the line and is another Blue Devil you really should not leave open if you plan on winning.  Moving on Jahlil Okafor is their best player, no question, and he is going to need to pick it up in the Final Four, he scored in single digits both games last weekend scoring 6 and 9 in those contests.  Forget his own draft stock, he needs to be the dominant Okafor we all saw and heard about all regular season if Duke wants to win this title, if Duke wants a shot for the title at all.  Michigan State isn't marching out an army of giants like Kentucky does, but as is the case with all Izzo-coached teams, they are going to play physical and fight tooth and nail for every rebound, for position, for the win.  Okafor needs to use his size against the smaller MSU front court players to give the Blue Devils their best chance to win.  Now Okafor may be Duke's most talented player, but Justise Winslow is their most important.  He is the engine that can drive them because the better he plays, the better Duke plays.  Perimeter defense is a strength of Duke, Cook, Jones, and Winslow are all good defenders capable of slowing down opposing guards and wings.

Duke Weaknesses: Interior defense.  They don't bock a lot of shots and between Okafor and Amile Jefferson there isn't much resistance inside for Duke.  Also Duke has little to no depth, coming into the tournament they only have 8 scholarship players, foul trouble can potentially be a major issue, especially against MSU who will undoubtedly make the game physical.  Also Coach K likes to extend his pressure for some reason, you'd think he wouldn't after NC State and Miami cut them up and handed them a pair of embarrassing home losses, not saying MSU has those caliber guards but with a coach like Tom Izzo they can surely find a way to exploit that and get easy looks on offense.  One minor weakness is Justise Winslow's temper, in games he's been frustrated he has made some incredibly stupid fouls (see him kicking a Tar Heel in the chest, and grabbing another's leg with his own legs).  The nature of how the Spartans play could bring that out of him tonight.

Michigan State Strengths: There's not a lot of stats that will tell you the Spartans were much more than just pretty good this year.  They can be a solid offensive team (56th in ppg and 34th offensive efficiency), as well as defensively (76th defensive efficiency), they share the ball very well (4th assists per game), but what they do best are the little intangibles.  They flat out compete, they play physical, and they are incredibly tough.  They won't give up, it's tough for any team to make the Final Four, especially a 7 seed who had to go through the likes of Virginia, Louisville, Georgia, and Oklahoma.  They aren't the flashiest but they will compete for 40 minutes and that can give any team trouble.

Michigan State Weaknesses:  Lack of size can be troublesome, especially against the likes of Jahlil Okafor and potentially Wisconsin or Kentucky.  Sparty has been victim of long scoring droughts and just poor offensive play in general.  Travis Trice has to take good shots, he has a tendency to take horrible shots a lot, he can not even think about taking those kinds of shots if they want to knock off mighty Duke.  Also they are an abysmal free throw shooting team, so this could be problematic in a close game, especially the way Duke can score so if they find themselves leading a close game they have to hit their free throws which looks like they may struggle they way some of their players shoot from the charity stripe.

Prediction: Duke 78, Michigan State 70

I believe this game will be close all game, until the end.  Too much Duke offense will allow them to pull away, especially with Cook and Jones who shoot 89% apiece.  Okafor will have a great game again and Duke will out shoot MSU for a shot at a 5th National Title.