NCAA Basketball

Final Four Preview II

Duke vs Michigan State:

Duke Strengths: Duke does a lot of things well on the court, but scoring may be what they do best.  They are third in the nation in points per game pouring in 79.5 a night, and let's not forget that these guys can shoot.  They are third in the nation in shooting percentage (50.2%), twenty-first in 3 point percentage (39%), and fourth in 2 point percentage (56%).  Their three point attack is headlined by Quinn Cook, the senior hits just under three triples a game at a 40% clip, and if left open he WILL make you pay.  The Joneses, Matt and Tyus, both can hit the deep ball too.  Matt hit 4-7 threes against Gonzaga last weekend on his way to 16 points, Tyus shoots 37% from behind the line and is another Blue Devil you really should not leave open if you plan on winning.  Moving on Jahlil Okafor is their best player, no question, and he is going to need to pick it up in the Final Four, he scored in single digits both games last weekend scoring 6 and 9 in those contests.  Forget his own draft stock, he needs to be the dominant Okafor we all saw and heard about all regular season if Duke wants to win this title, if Duke wants a shot for the title at all.  Michigan State isn't marching out an army of giants like Kentucky does, but as is the case with all Izzo-coached teams, they are going to play physical and fight tooth and nail for every rebound, for position, for the win.  Okafor needs to use his size against the smaller MSU front court players to give the Blue Devils their best chance to win.  Now Okafor may be Duke's most talented player, but Justise Winslow is their most important.  He is the engine that can drive them because the better he plays, the better Duke plays.  Perimeter defense is a strength of Duke, Cook, Jones, and Winslow are all good defenders capable of slowing down opposing guards and wings.

Duke Weaknesses: Interior defense.  They don't bock a lot of shots and between Okafor and Amile Jefferson there isn't much resistance inside for Duke.  Also Duke has little to no depth, coming into the tournament they only have 8 scholarship players, foul trouble can potentially be a major issue, especially against MSU who will undoubtedly make the game physical.  Also Coach K likes to extend his pressure for some reason, you'd think he wouldn't after NC State and Miami cut them up and handed them a pair of embarrassing home losses, not saying MSU has those caliber guards but with a coach like Tom Izzo they can surely find a way to exploit that and get easy looks on offense.  One minor weakness is Justise Winslow's temper, in games he's been frustrated he has made some incredibly stupid fouls (see him kicking a Tar Heel in the chest, and grabbing another's leg with his own legs).  The nature of how the Spartans play could bring that out of him tonight.

Michigan State Strengths: There's not a lot of stats that will tell you the Spartans were much more than just pretty good this year.  They can be a solid offensive team (56th in ppg and 34th offensive efficiency), as well as defensively (76th defensive efficiency), they share the ball very well (4th assists per game), but what they do best are the little intangibles.  They flat out compete, they play physical, and they are incredibly tough.  They won't give up, it's tough for any team to make the Final Four, especially a 7 seed who had to go through the likes of Virginia, Louisville, Georgia, and Oklahoma.  They aren't the flashiest but they will compete for 40 minutes and that can give any team trouble.

Michigan State Weaknesses:  Lack of size can be troublesome, especially against the likes of Jahlil Okafor and potentially Wisconsin or Kentucky.  Sparty has been victim of long scoring droughts and just poor offensive play in general.  Travis Trice has to take good shots, he has a tendency to take horrible shots a lot, he can not even think about taking those kinds of shots if they want to knock off mighty Duke.  Also they are an abysmal free throw shooting team, so this could be problematic in a close game, especially the way Duke can score so if they find themselves leading a close game they have to hit their free throws which looks like they may struggle they way some of their players shoot from the charity stripe.

Prediction: Duke 78, Michigan State 70

I believe this game will be close all game, until the end.  Too much Duke offense will allow them to pull away, especially with Cook and Jones who shoot 89% apiece.  Okafor will have a great game again and Duke will out shoot MSU for a shot at a 5th National Title.

Final Four Preview

Kentucky vs Wisconsin:

UK Strengths:  The most obvious strength of Kentucky is their interior defense. They have 6 players listed at 6'9" or taller.  It is incredibly difficult for anyone to score on their bigs down low, that has been clearly evident all year.  They lead the nation in defensive efficiency, opponent field goal percentage, 3-pt field goal percentage, and are second in opponent 2-pt field goal percentage.  Also I shouldn't stats to prove to you that they are one of the best transition teams in the country both offensively and defensively.  Defensively you see just how athletic their bigs are by chasing down guards in transition and blocking easy layups.  For example when UK obliterated Kansas early this year, I was in awe at how many times Frank Mason, who is a very good point guard and finisher, got swatted on transition layups.  As for their transition offense, whenever I see Kentucky go on one of their huge runs that ends up putting the game out of reach it is always fueled by their ability to score in transition.  This suits them well considering how big, athletic, and talented all of the players in Coach Cal's rotation are, well except Tyler Ulis who is just athletic and talented.  Their length helps them steal and block the ball leading to these fast break opportunities.  Also Karl-Anthony Towns is huge for the Cats down low, as their only true and elite low-post scorer, and a likely top 3 pick in this year's NBA draft.  And this team has experience, which is odd for a Coach Cal team, but  out of 16 players on their roster, 11 of them were on the national runner up team last season.  Obviously they posses many strengths, they are 38-0 for a reason.

UK Weaknesses:  This weakness will shock you I am sure, maybe even cause anger and make you want to lash out at me and think I know absolutely nothing about basketball.  UK's perimeter defense has been abysmal waaayyyy too often this year.  Now you can go back to all those percentages from before and I will tell you this, just watch them.  Tyler Ulis is good, but I have seen Booker and the Harrison's get very lazy and rely on their shot blockers too much.  They get beat what feels like all the time and are extremely lucky that all those big guys are inside, and as talented as they are.  Defense is primarily effort and I have seen too little effort out of key perimeter defenders on Kentucky to bow down and say their defense is perfect and it's the greatest thing ever.  Those guys I mentioned before are all long and athletic guys, so in theory they should be fantastic perimeter defenders, but they have been spoiled by being bailed out by the likes of Cauley-Stein and Towns too much and it will bite them at this stage.  Also those stats I used in their strengths are weighted.  They really didn't play any elite shooting teams all year until last weekend when they played Notre Dame and look what happened.  The Irish lost by 2, and shot 46% from the floor, though they were cold that night from beyond the arc (4-14 good for 29%) that threat allowed them to exploit the poor permitter defense and set up quite a few easy looks.  Guess what Big Blue Nation?  Wisconsin is a lot like that Irish team, only much bigger and more talented.  Keeping with the perimeter theme, outside of Booker the Cats don't have very reliable shooting.  You may say the Harrison twins are good, but they are really streaky and are good but not very reliable, you can get away with letting them have a few looks.  Ulis can hit the 3 but doesn't really look for his own shot so in that way he's only a threat if you leave him open.  Also Towns is the only player on the team with a good post game, so Kentucky struggles to generate offense if they aren't scoring in transition.  UK's record says  perfect, but the film suggest otherwise.

UW Strengths:  The Badgers have been a great offensive team all season long.  Surprising?  Not really if you have seen them play at all this year, maybe it's surprising if you get your basketball info from general stereotypes about teams.  They don't score 90+ points every game, because they play at a slower more controlled pace, but they are mercilessly efficient.  They lead they nation in offensive efficiency.  Oh by the way, Notre Dame is second and we all know what they almost did to the Wildcats.  They are 6th in the nation in scoring margin, outscoring opponents by 15 points per game. UK is first, outscoring opponents by 20.8ppg, but the SEC is much weaker than the Big Ten, even in this "off year" for the conference.  Also two huge things the Badgers excel at: they don't turn the ball over (number 1 in fewest turnovers per game), and they don't foul you (also number 1 in fewest fouls per game).  Why are these so important?  Aside from the obvious reasons why they are generally good, these are huge because the Badgers take care of the ball,  UK thrives in transition, few turnovers=few transition points.  Kentucky is a good free throw shooting team, and few fouls means less chances for easy points at the free throw line.  This will force the Wildcats to be more effective in the half-court, something I'm not sure they can be.  Everyone the Badgers play can hit the three, also huge as that opens up more space in the half court and draws some of those vaunted shot blockers away from the paint.  Also these Badgers are more athletic than most experts give them credit for, obviously UK is on another level in terms of athleticism, but the Cats won't run Wisconsin out of the gym like some may think they could.

UW Weaknesses:  Usually great defense and Bo Ryan go hand in hand.  This year has been different, the Badgers have struggled at times this year, almost appearing disinterested after gaining a big lead, this has effected them on offense as well at times.  They will need to play very good defense to keep the Wildcats out of the paint, and that's where they have struggled most often this year.  Josh Gasser is a great defender, and Bronson Keonig is capable, but at times guards have been able to get by him easier than they should.  Dekker also has had his struggles, luckily for him Poythress is out, so that's one less player trying to drive by him.  Hayes is strong but is a little shorter than you'd like a 4 to be, standing about 6'7" or 6'8", and Kaminsky was backed down more often than you would like in their Elite 8 game against Arizona.  Also in games against lesser teams when they got off to a quick start the Badgers appeared disinterested on offense leading to scoring droughts.  If UW wants to take down UK they have to do whatever they can to avoid any kind of drought, because against that defense you need to generate as much offense as you can.

Prediction:  Badgers 67, Wildcats 64.
I take the Badgers to upset UK in a one possession game.  Why? The Badgers' strengths potentially expose the Wildcats' weaknesses better than UK's do UW's.  Keeping the Cats out of transition and a strong perimeter offensive attack are two things that can best bring about the downfall of mighty Kentucky.  Going back to the ND game, they almost pulled off the upset, you can easily draw similarities between them and Wisconsin, only the Badgers have the size to better match up with UK and keep Towns in check.  The Badgers need to hit outside shots, luckily they have been very good at that this year as the bigs of Kentucky won't allow Hayes or Kaminsky to dominate down low, and the second half Wisconsin had against Arizona in the Elite 8 is the kind of shooting performance that can instill plenty of confidence in any team, and maybe that hot shooting continues, and I think it does just enough for the Badgers to not only hand Kentucky their first and only loss of the year, but lets them play for their first National Championship since 1941.