NBA

2015 NBA Playoff Predictions: Conference Finals

Western Conference:

1) Golden State Warriors

2) Houston Rockets

Prediction: Warriors in 5

Why?: I picked the Warriors to win quick last round, but I should have known Memphis would show up and win more than once.  The Rockets after appearing dead in the water after going down 3-1 to the Clippers, roared back and stole the series to set up a matchup between the top two teams in the better conference, and the top two vote getters in the MVP race.  That's actual MVP Stephen Curry and runner-up James Harden if you somehow missed that.  In the regular season the Warriors swept the Rockets, actually they destroyed them all four games winning by 11, 12, 25, and 13 points for an average margin of victory of 15.3 points.  Now Houston was without Dwight for the first two games, and you may not put any stock into what happened between two playoff teams in the regular season, but there is one key point I'd like to make here.  Houston won't have Patrick Beverly, who may be abysmal on offense, but is an absolute pest on defense.  Now Trevor Ariza is Houston's best perimeter defender.  James Harden is not the cone we all saw in last year's playoffs on defense anymore, but he's still far from a lockdown defender, as for the rest of Houston's perimeter defense?  Pablo Prigioni, Jason Terry, and then Corey Brewer.  Of that group, Brewer is the only good defender.  Who is going to stop the Splash Brothers, Klay Thompson and Steph Curry?  Sure you can put Ariza on one, but they can both go by Harden, Klay can shoot over Pablo and Jason Terry, Brewer won't play huge minutes, also if you go Harden and Ariza on Curry and Thompson, Harrison Barnes (who has stepped up in this postseason and continues to impress me) would abuse either Terry or Prigioni.  And then Klay Thompson is the best two way shooting guard in the NBA, and in all four match ups between these teams this season he has done a good job getting Harden out of his rhythm.  You're not going to shut him down, but Klay can definitely slow him down.  Both teams like to play fast and score a lot, another bit of bad news for Houston, you can't beat the Dubs that way.  Sorry for piling on you, H-town, but the only thing stopping me from calling a sweep is that it's the conference finals.

Eastern Conference:

1) Atlanta Hawks

2) Cleveland Cavaliers

Prediction: Cavs in 7

Why?: Atlanta was great in the middle of the regular season, but I don't know what to make of them in the playoffs.  Sure they won both their series so far in six games each, but they didn't do it very impressively, they didn't really look like a 1 seed other than when they destroyed Brooklyn in game 6 in the first round.  Washington was great this postseason, but Atlanta should have still handled them especially when John Wall was out.  The Cleveland Cavaliers on the other hand have over come the Love injury and they proved that when they punked the Bulls three games in a row after Derrick Rose's buzzer beater gave the Bulls a 2-1 lead in the series.  LeBron is being LeBron, and the Cavs appear to be clicking here in the playoffs.  I still think Atlanta can push the series to 7, maybe even win it, if they can get back to doing what made them so great this regular season, before they went into coast mode and apparently got stuck there.  They are called "Spurs-East" for a reason, and we all remember what the actual Spurs did to a LeBron lead team in the Finals last year.  It's still hard for me to believe the Hawks will magically find their grove again at this point in the season and take this series from Cleveland, but hey, it's the playoffs, you never know what could happen.

2015 NBA Playoff Predictions: Conference Semifinals

Western Conference:

1) Golden State Warriors

5) Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: Warriors in 5

Why?: I was almost burned picking the Warriors to sweep the Pelicans, but thanks to the Warriors incredible resiliency they did sweep New Orleans. Golden State proved they're not just a flashy, finesse, 82-game running highlight reel that wouldn't hold up in the post season.  They faced serious adversity from a game Pelicans team that gave them fits at times in that series, they won game 3 on a 20 point comeback driven by toughness (and an absolutely incredible shot by Steph). That same resiliency is why I am confident in saying the Dubs will have little issue handling the slow and Conley-less Grizzlies. Golden State went 2-1 and their two wins saw them smashing the Grizz, except for the fourth quarter of the third game in which the Warrior reserves nearly blew a 93-66 lead. Steph Curry dropped 38, while handing out 10 assists in a 107-84 waxing in the Grind House. Memphis won the first meeting, also in Memphis, by 7 thanks in large part to one of, if not the best showing from Vince Carter this season, and the Warriors not playing up to their usual standard.  And if we're being honest a blown travel call that resulted in a petty tech given to Andre Iguodala.  I credit Memphis for pretty easily handeling Portland, but Golden State proved they can be a matchup nightmare for Memphis, that plus no Mike Conley equals Golden State swiflty advancing to the West Finals.

2) Houston Rockets
3) Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Rockets in 7
Why?: I loved how the Clippers played against the Spurs in the only series that went 7 games this first round.  The Rockets dismantled a 50-win Dallas team that felt like it was slowly falling apart with the Rondo Drama, and on defense an old Dirk  was being exposed like a creepy man beneath a trench coat.  I think this series could still go either way because they are very evenly matched.  Both have exceptionally athletic front courts in Dwight and Josh Smith (I know he doesn't start), and Blake and DeAndre.  Both have elite superstar guards in CP3 and James Harden.  Both have older 3 and D small forwards in Barnes and Ariza.  Also both are not very deep.  I say Rockets win because as of now Glen Davis and Chris Paul are hurt.  Paul put on an Isaiah Thomas-like performance, seemingly stepping it up with his bad hamstring, like how Thomas took over in the finals on a bum ankle.  However it will be seen on Monday if, like Isaiah, the injury limits and badly hurts CP3's game, if he plays at all in game 1 Monday.  Big Baby's injury hurts the Clips because they have no real quality reserve big men behind him, that Doc is willing to give extended minutes to.  If you thought Dirk had trouble with the Houston bigs, Hedo Turkoglu and Spencer Hawes will have an equally hard time, if not an even harder time, containing them.  Also the Clippers ended their series last night and have to play tomorrow, the Rockets were done early last week so they are rested, the Clippers are unhealthy and unrested, so I think Houston will win this series, but will be pushed by the Clips.

Eastern Conference:

1) Atlanta Hawks

5) Washington Wizards

Prediction: Hawks in 7

Why?: Wizards were ultra-impressive in destroying a Raptors team that looked like just plain horrible.  The Hawks were actually very disappointing in their 6-game series against a Brooklyn group that I honestly expected to look plain horrible (which they did in game 6).  Atlanta looked like they forgot it was the playoffs and they can stop coasting until that game 6, and credit Brooklyn for actually playing very good basketball for 5 games in that series.  Atlanta has to pick up their intensity because you know the Wizards will bring it and give the Hawks a fight.  They have all the confidence in the world after what they did to Toronto.  Washington does have a big advantage in their big combo of Gortat and Nene, but the Hawks have faced front courts bigger than theirs almost all year, and they have a 60-22 record to show for it, so I don't think that will be as big a factor as some might.  I believe the Hawks won't dominate, but will do just enough to advance to the East Finals where they will face either Cleveland or Chicago.

2) Cleveland Cavaliers

3) Chicago Bulls

Prediction: Bulls in 7

Why?: I've liked the Bulls to come out of the East for a while, even though they've had a lot of injuries and have been up and down this season.  Kevin Love is a huge loss for Cleveland, his size, rebounding, and shooting are huge for what they do, now they'll have to likely give a lot more minutes to Shawn Marion, Mike Miller, or if they go small Iman Shumpert.  Also J.R. Smith out for two games is big because he stretches the defense as well, now the Bulls can pack it in a little more and take away driving lanes for Kyrie and LeBron.  Cavs can't put LeBron on Rose like he did for the Heat in the 2011 East Finals, because Kyrie is a shaky-at-best defender.  You leave him on Rose, and Rose has an easier time getting to the rim, put him on Butler and same for Butler, you put him on Dunleavy and he can shoot right over Kyrie, and Irving might get a forearm to the jaw, which I'm sure David Blatt does not want.  Don't get me wrong, Cleveland is still ultra talented but they lose almost any depth they have with the Love injury/Smith suspension, but Chicago (on paper) is just as talented, and much deeper despite Thibodeau's tendency to over play his starters.  The key to me is Chicago's intensity, if they come out like they did in games 1-5 vs Milwaukee against Cleveland they might get swept; but if they play like they did in game 6, with high intensity and great ball movement on offense, they may not win a game by 54 but I think they will win this series.

2015 NBA Playoffs: 1st Round Reactions

Surprises:

There were a few surprises in the first round in this years edition of the NBA playoffs.  First and foremost my home state Milwaukee Bucks.  54 point blowout in game 6 aside, they really came out and played hard, I expected they would but I didn't think they'd be keep it up long enough to win a game, let alone two.  Games 1-5 in this series were highly entertaining, and if it weren't for the forgettable implosion in game 6 I think this series would've been just as entertaining as Clippers-Spurs.  Another surprise from that very series was Derrick Rose.  I hoped he'd play well and he actually did for much of the series.  He had some blunders (missed late free throw in game 3, got burned for game winner in game 4 after turning the ball over), but all in all I was elated to see Derrick Rose play somewhere between pre-injury D-Rose and this season's D-Rose, hopefully he can build on the Milwaukee series and continue to improve against Cleveland and beyond.  Surprise three for me is the Washington Wizards, I thought they had a chance to win the series, but I never thought they would do it with a sweep, and an emphatic one at that.  That being said Toronto looked horrible, but I'll get to that in a bit.  Next surprise has to be the Brooklyn Nets.  Not only did they play Atlanta tough in games 1-5, but they actually won the first two games in the Barclay's Center.  They were not playing very good basketball for much of the season, but they played well enough to be thorns in the Hawks side, and you can say the Hawks were still stuck in cruise control like they were in almost all of April, but still a 60-win team should handle a 38-win team.  Unfortunately this series was much like Bucks-Bulls as it ended with a blowout, not 54 points but 24.

Disappointments:

The Toronto Raptors.  They were a Jurassic-sized disappointment as they were smashed by the Wizards much like the real dinosaurs were smashed by a comet.  They let 37-year old Paul Pierce walk all over them, yeah he's a future Hall-of-Famer but still, the man is 37!  I expected this to be the most competitive series in the East, even Boston was thousands of times more competitive that had more talent in it's starting five than the Celtics had on their entire roster.  The Raptors played some of the worst offense I've seen a playoff team play in a while.  I've seen better offense in pick up games at my local Y.  Kyle Lowry was worn down, and he looked it.  DeMar DeRozan, while not known for his ball-handling, looked like he never dribbled a ball before, he couldn't get anywhere.  Yes Washington is solid defensive team, but they are no Chicago, Golden State, Memphis, or even Milwaukee.  This team played so bad 51 year old Michael Jordan and his prized number one pick, Kwame Brown, could've joined the team and been their best players.  Hell, Jordan probably would've been their leading scorer.  I still can't believe how bad they played, the only reason game 1 went to overtime was because for the majority of that game Washington was equally bad.  From there they went on to lose by 11, 7 (but they shot 37%), and 31.  Yes in game 4, playing for only pride at that point, the Raps heroically laid down and died.  A crushing disappointment not only for Raptors fans, but basketball fans, instead of a competitive series, one team was prepared and played like it mattered, and the other team was softer than a Drake hook.  Unbelievable.  Oh yeah, Toronto wasn't the only disappointment, though they were by far the biggest.  I expected more from Portland, though it's hard to blame them due to the rash of injuries that hit them late this season.  Also Dallas.  Rick Carlisle is hailed as a genius and even he couldn't pull his team together to avoid a loss in a mere 5 games.  Dirk looked old, the Rockets sheer athleticism of their front court alone was enough to force Carlisle to try and hide Dirk on Ariza, worked for one game, but for that one game all the Mavs played a great game, the series was competitive enough, but from a team that pushed the all-mighty Spurs to their only 7 game series last year, I expected more.

2015 NBA Playoff Predictions: Round 1

Western Conference:

1) Golden State Warriors

8) New Orleans Pelicans

Prediction: Warriors in 4

Why?: NO does have Anthony Davis, who could lead New Orleans to a win in this series, but Golden State has a loaded team, headlined by likely MVP Steph Curry, who has been red hot since the All-Star break (over 50% from 3).  Not to mention Klay Thompson seemed to find his grove again in the last week, all this plus a healthy Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut means the Brow's playoff debut will be short-lived and the Golden State Warriors step up and pull out the brooms in round 1.

2) Houston Rockets

7) Dallas Mavericks

Prediction: Rockets in 7

Why?: Houston has had a great year, and now they have Dwight Back, but Dallas is also very talented and may get Chandler Parsons back.  Though things don't run very smoothly in the Rondo-Ellis backcourt, this is still by and large the team that took the Spurs to 7 games last year, the only team to do so, and they won't let Texas rival Houston advance without a fight.

3) Los Angeles Clippers

6) San Antonio Spurs

Prediction: Spurs in 7

Why?: LA has been tearing it up to end the year, but the defending champs have seemed to find their form as well.  The Clips starting 5 can matchup toe-to-toe with San Antonio's but where SA has a goldmine of depth to fall back on, LA has next to none after Jamal Crawford, and that is where the Spurs will gain an edge in the series and wear down the Clippers starting 5+Jamal, and once again move on to the Western semis.

4) Portland Trail Blazers

5) Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: Grizzlies in 6

Why?: Memphis is getting some of its injured players back, key players in Mike Conley and Tony Allen, and Portland is trotting out Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge with a beat up supporting cast to try and win a playoff series in back to back seasons in a stacked through the roof West.  With key players in Afflalo, Batum, and Aldridge playing through nagging injuries, and with Wes Matthews out until next year, the Grizz advance, giving Portland more time to try and cure their long lasting injury plague.

Eastern Conference:

1) Atlanta Hawks

8) Brooklyn Nets

Prediction: Hawks in 4

Why?: A 60-win Atlanta team vs and underachieving joke of a Brooklyn squad lucky enough to be in an extremely weak East.  No way Atlanta struggles in this series, I don't even need to mention that during the regular season series winning by an average of 17.3 points.  Hawks roll.

2) Cleveland Cavaliers

7) Boston Celtics

Prediction: Cavs in 5

Why?: Cleveland is the superior team no question, and they will dominate the series.  But Boston came from out of nowhere to end up as the 7 seed in the East.  They looked dead in the water and all of a sudden they are in a "playoff race" and end up with a surprising 40-win season when most, myself included, thought them to be a lottery lock when the season started.  They earned those 40 wins by competing and playing hard, though LeBron and co. dispatched them twice, easily, at the end of the year, not to mention King James usually dominates in the first round, Boston's tenacity will help them steal a game before ultimately wishing they did have a lottery pick instead.

3) Chicago Bulls

6) Milwaukee Bucks

Prediction: Bulls in 4

Why?: The East is so top-heavy that it's boring.  Milwaukee was a nice surprise going .500 this year, J-Kidd has them playing great defense, but Chicago defends as well, and they have the superior offense by far in this series.  Milwaukee doesn't have the fire power especially with Jabari Parker sidelined until year 2 with a torn ACL, and because they made the unbelievably stupid decision to trade borderline All-Star PG Brandon Knight to get the incredibly poor shooting, turn-over prone, mega-project known as Michael Carter-Williams.  (Just another reason the Bucks are the only major team from my home state that I refuse to root for, not that I want them to do poor)  Also Milwaukee is the home away from home for the Bulls, say what you will about home-court advantage and if it helps or not but all games in arenas dominated by Chicago fans playing a fairly inferior team? Sounds like a sweep to me.

4) Toronto Raptors

5) Washington Wizards

Prediction: Raptors in 7

Why?: I take the Raptors in what figures to be the only competitive series in the East's first round.  Both teams started off very strong, but have crawled their way to disappointing finishes.  I do think Toronto has the slight overall talent edge, due to their bench vs Washington's, as well as 4 games at the Air Canada center, where the Hockey-loving folks from the Great White North also love their Raptors hoops, and Toronto will win a game 7 there.  Despite getting a fight from the Wiz, it's all chalk in a (another) disappointing East.

My awards and playoff predictions soon.