2016 NCAA Tournament Predictions: First Round

South Region

1 Kansas v 16 Austin Peay

Prediction: Kansas

Why?: You know damn well why.

8 Colorado v 9 UConn

Prediction: UConn

Why?:  UConn got hot at the end of the year, last two times they did that?  They won it all.  They won't this year, but I definitely think they'll beat Colorado who was pretty good, but I'll take Kevin Ollie and March UConn all day long.

5 Maryland v 12 South Dakota State

Prediction: SDSU

Why?: I think Maryland has been overrated by the media all year.  They have all the talent in the world, but that doesn't matter when you don't play together.  Also Maryland has played down to their opponent all year.  Give me a good mid-major who plays good defense and takes care of the ball, and with something to prove over a dysfunctional Maryland squad here.

4 Cal v 13 Hawaii

Prediction: Cal

Why?: Hawaii is a damn good team, but Cal has great talent and turned it on at the end of the season.  That's enough for me to say Cal avoids the upset.

6 Arizona v 11 Wichita State

Prediction: Arizona

Why?: WSU played well last night, and Zona underachieved in Pac-12 play.  I still like Arizona here and I think they not only win this game, but go on a deep run.

3 Miami v 14 Buffalo

Prediction: Miami

Why?: Miami is just too good, I can't see Buffalo winning this game.

7 Iowa v 10 Temple

Prediction: Temple
Why?: The owls have really improved, they're a young team who took some beatings from the likes of Carolina and Wisconsin early on, but they held their own in the A-10 and I really like this team.  Iowa on the other hand has completely fallen apart and I can't say with certainty that they'll ever win a basketball game again.

2 Villanova v 15 UNC Asheville

Prediction: Nova

Why?: UNCA is really small, they have no one taller than 6-5 or 6-6 that really plays.  Not even Nova would lose this early anyway.

West Region

1 Oregon v 16 Holy Cross or Southern

Prediction: Oregon

Why?: Quack quack.

8 St. Joe's v 9 Cincinnati

Prediction: St. Joe's

Why?: Another A-10 team I like.  The duo of DeAndre Bembry and Isiah Miles is really good, they don't turn the ball over, and they won their conference tournament. I like them to make a deep run.

5 Baylor v 12 Yale

Prediction: Yale

Why?: Yale can shoot and they play great defense, they'll need to keep the game slower to have their best chance to beat Baylor and I think they win regardless.  In my opinion they're the best 12 seed in the field.

4 Duke v 13 UNC Wilmington

Prediction: UNCW

Why?: No, this pick is not out of my hate for Duke, I usually want to pick this and I never do so when the Duke first round losses happen I miss out.  I think this years Duke team is exactly the Duke team that will lose in the first round.  Grayson Allen is not a great leader and Brandon Ingram usually seems out to get his.  Duke has no depth and can't take advantage of UNCW's lack of size because all they have is Plumlee and he's not exactly a scoring machine.  You'd think the fact UNCW plays small is in Duke's favor, but they are a great 3 point shooting team and they're a great 3 point stopping (not sure if that's the right word but I'm rolling with it) team.  And the little guy is always gunning for Duke, I think Duke was overseeded but I think this is a really bad matchup for them.

6 Texas v 11 North Iowa

Prediction: Texas

Why?: UNI is a popular pick here, and they've taken down giants in the past (2010 they beat Kansas in the second round when I picked KU to win it all) but, I really like Texas.  Shaka Smart has been here before and I think the size of Texas is too much for UNI.

3 Texas A&M v 14 UW Green Bay

Prediction: TAMU

Why?: The only chance GB has is if they get really hot from deep.  Otherwise the Aggies roll.

7 Oregon State v 10 VCU

Prediction: VCU

Why?: Another game I've gone back and forth on, but I'm rolling with VCU.  They're consistently good, and OSU may be without one of their better players so I'm going to go ahead and play it safe.

2 Oklahoma v 15 Cal State Bakersfield

Prediction: Oklahoma

Why?: Next.

East Region

1 North Carolina v 16 FGCU

Prediction: UNC

Why?: I still like Carolina to win it all so I'm not predicting a loss for them, especially not here.

8 USC v 9 Providence

Prediction: USC

Why?: I like the Trojans.  I think people are high on Providence because of Kris Dunn, but they underachieved in the Big East.  SC will look to push the tempo and they can score in a variety of ways, plus Andy Enfield (their coach) was head coach at FGCU when they went to the Sweet 16 as a 15 seed.

5 Indiana v 12 Chattanooga

Prediction: IU

Why?: Indiana could be vulnerable if they're not making 3s, but I think they'll make them and therefore win the game.

4 Kentucky v 13 Stony Brook

Prediction: UK

Why?: Kentucky is playing well and they have the best backcourt in the country.  Stony Brook star Jameel Warney could cause problems and will Stony Brook to a win, but it's hard to bet against UK in the first round.

6 Notre Dame v 11 Michigan or Tulsa

Prediction: Notre Dame

Why?: Neither Michigan or Tulsa should be in and Notre Dame is a good team who should be looking to take out some frustration after getting waxed by the Tar Heels.

3 West Virginia v 14 Stephen F Austin

Prediction: WVU

Why?: I just cannot see how they lose this game.  No fancy analysis needed.

7 Wisconsin v 10 Pittsburgh

Prediction: Wisconsin

Why?: Should be a close game between two evenly matched teams, honestly flip a coin for this one.  I'm taking UW because I think they can make the Sweet 16.

2 Xavier v Weber State

Prediction: Xavier

Why?: Obviously they have the talent edge.  But if you wanted to take a 2-15 upset, this might be it.  (IMO) This game pits the weakest 2 seed vs the best 15 seed and I could see Weber stealing one.

Midwest Region

1 Virginia v 16 Hampton

Prediction: Hampton

Why?: Sike! UVA will win.  Sucker

8 Texas Tech v 9 Butler

Prediction: Butler

Why?: If you've ever watched the tournament, you know Butler is a lock for at least one win every March.  And I just think they're better than TTU.

5 Purdue v 12 Arkansas Little Rock

Prediction: Purdue

Why?: UALR is a really good 12 seed, but Purdue is a very good 5 seed.  They avoid the upset here.

4 Iowa State v 13 Iona

Prediction: Iona

Why?: I don't have a lot of faith in Iowa state after losing to UAB last year.  I had them in the Final 4 last year, and this year they're worse and Iona is better than UAB.  Both teams want to play fast, and ISU still doesn't play defense so  I think Alex English goes off and Iowa State again falls in round 1.

6 Seton Hall vs 11 Gonzaga

Prediction: Seton Hall

Why?: I like this Seton Hall team, they beat Xavier and Villanova in the Big East tournament to win it.  This is a weaker Gonzaga team and the only real advantage they have is experience in the dance.

3 Utah v 14 Fresno State

Prediction: Fresno State

Why?: I don't have a lot of faith in the Utes.  They've dropped some games they should have won and have just been pretty unimpressive.  They made it to the final of a weak Pac-12 tournament because Cal didn't play defense and Utah went coast to coast for a game-tying layup.  Then they got destroyed by Oregon.  Fresno on the other hand lost to Oregon in Eugene by 5 and are 11-1 in their last 12 coming in and won the MWC tournament beating San Diego State who should be in the tournament.

7 Dayton v 10 Syracuse

Prediction: Dayton

Why?: The Flyers are a good team getting one of their better players back.  Syracuse comes in limping having lost 5 of their last 6.  I wanted to pick Syracuse as the team that shouldn't have gotten in that makes a run but I don't think they beat Dayton.  I don't think any of these bubble teams that made it have a deep run in them, but the way Syracuse has been playing lately Dayton should take care of business.

2 Michigan State v 15 Middle Tennessee State

Prediction: MSU

Why?: One of the 4 best teams in the country, I don't think MTSU can keep up.

Here's my whole bracket:

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