2016 NBA Playoff Predictions: 1st Round

Western Conference

(1) Golden State Warriors v (8) Houston Rockets

Pick: Warriors in 4

Why?: These teams met in the West Finals last year, and Golden State got better and the Rockets got much worse going 41-41 and losing every game they played against the Warriors this year.  In last years playoffs the Dubs won in 5 and the only game they lost was when Steph got concussed.  Patrick Beverly may do some dirty things against Steph this series but I don't think he'll get concussed and I don't think the dysfunctional Rockets win once.

(2) San Antonio Spurs v (7) Memphis Grizzlies

Pick: Spurs in 4

Why?: The Grizz lost a lot of their key guys to injury, everyone but Zach Randolph really, and the Spurs are maybe the best the Spurs have been ever.  I just don't see a way Memphis wins a game in what should be a slow and ugly series.

(3) Oklahoma City Thunder v (6) Dallas Mavericks

Pick: OKC in 5

Why?: Dallas has been here before, a lot, and for the first time since 2012 OKC will have Durant, Westbrook, and Ibaka healthy in the playoffs.  Two years ago Dallas was the 8 seed and pushed eventual champ San Antonio to 7, but OKC is so much more athletic and talented and the players have experience though Billy Donovan may not.  Rick Carlisle is a brilliant coach, but OKC is just way too good for them to make this series last longer than 6 games at most.

(4) Los Angeles Clippers v (5) Portland Trail Blazers

Pick: Clips in 6

Why?: This should be the most competitive series in the West, but unless Portland is red hot the whole series, LA has Blake Griffin back, and again they're a lot more talented.  Portland did well just to make the playoffs after losing 4 starters in free agency last year, let alone as the 5 seed.  LA was 9 games better at 53-29 (Portland was 44-38).  I think they'll steal a couple but that's it.

Eastern Conference:

(1) Cleveland Cavaliers v (8) Detroit Pistons

Pick: Cavs in 5

Why?: LeBron and the Cavs are the best team in the East, Detroit was very good and match up well, but LeBron teams always dominate the first round.  He's never had a first round loss, and though Stan Van Gundy was the coach of the Orlando team that beat LeBron and Cleveland in the 09 East Finals in 5 games, this Cavs team is much better than the 09 one (even though that team was 66-16) and that Orlando team was better than this Detroit team.  So I think they'll take one, maybe two, but they won't go to 7 and they won't win the series.

(2) Toronto Raptors v (7) Indiana Pacers

Pick: Raps in 6

Why?: Paul George is great and has been great in the playoffs when he gets there (remember he made it to back to back East finals vs the Big 3 Heat) but this team is the least talented team he's had in the post season going against the best Raptors team (record-wise) in their franchise history after a 56 win season.  And unlike last year the Raptors aren't limping into the playoffs, they likely won't get Demarre Carroll back at all, but as long as Lowry and DeRozan continue to be the second best backcourt in the league they shouldn't have much trouble.

(3) Miami Heat v (6) Charlotte Hornets

Pick: Hornets in 7

Why?: Miami has the playoff tested vets, and Charlotte is making the playoffs for the first time since 2014 when they were the Bobcats and were swept by the Heat.  Charlotte made a big jump in their 3 point shooting becoming the 4th best 3-point shooting team this year, a huge advantage over the Heat who kinda suck at shooting the 3.  Hassan Whiteside will be a huge key for Miami as the Hornets have really nobody who can slow him down, but I believe in Cardiac Kemba and the Hornets and I think they'll protect the Hive and take game 7 in South Beach.  I think all games will be close and it should be a great first round series.

(4) Atlanta Hawks v (5) Boston Celtics

Pick: Celtics in 7

Why?: Atlanta has the edge in the front court with Milsap and Horford, but I say Boston takes this one in another series that should have all close games and go 7.  It's tough to pick because they're both good not great teams without a superstar leading them, and both have great head coaches.  Should be a great series and (unfortunately because I don't like them) I think Boston will win it.